How will Luka and Irving fit on offense?
Irving has never played with a player this ball-dominant. The Mavs’ MVP candidate has the ball in his hands 9.6 minutes per game, over a full minute per game more than any other player in the league. He also led the league in time of possession in 2021-22 and 2020-21. He finished second in 2019-20.
It’s hard to overemphasize how different this will be compared to playing with Durant, who is
much more comfortable playing without the ball and being an efficient assassin when he gets it. Durant currently averages 67 touches per game — just 43rd in the
NBA — and is a top-10 scorer in the NBA in terms of points per touch. He’s 96th in the NBA in dribbles per touch and is outside of the top 50 in terms of time of possession. He’s an ideal superstar to play next to an All-NBA guard.
The natural comparison point will be Irving’s time with
LeBron James from 2014 to 2017, but I think there is a case that even his time with James didn’t really set him up for what this role could look like in Dallas. James shifted into more of an off-ball role than people think in those years. In 2014-15 with the
Cavaliers, James and Irving actually had the same amount of time of possession per game at 6.5 minutes, and they had nearly the same touches. Irving led the Cavs in time of possession in 2015-16, when they won the title, and he led again in 2016-17. Even in the playoffs in 2015-16, Irving was handling the ball more than James did, before James took the reins back in 2016-17. If you look at it from a usage perspective, James had about a 28.3 usage rate versus Irving’s 24.6,
per PBP Stats, and James was nowhere near Dončić’s gargantuan 36.5 usage rate over the last two seasons when one of Dinwiddie or
Jalen Brunson was next to him.
Dončić will (and should) have the ball more often than Irving. Dallas’ goal over the next decade is to accentuate Dončić, not accentuate others at his expense. And ultimately, this deal is going to be defined by the minutes when Dončić and Irving play together — particularly in the playoffs. How does Dončić adjust to playing with someone better than he’s ever played with in his life?
There is no evidence available to say that it’ll go poorly. Dončić has consistently made guards around him look great. Dinwiddie averaged 22.3 points per 100 possessions on a 63.2 true shooting percentage in minutes with Dončić this season. Brunson averaged 31.5 points per 100 last season on a 56.5 true shooting percentage without Dončić, versus 21.1 points on a 60.6 true shooting percentage with Dončić on the court. For the usage that you give up playing with Dončić, the attention he draws undeniably creates easier shots for you when you’re on the court with him.
But for as good as Brunson and Dinwiddie are, neither has the talent Irving does, and both were in roles expected to be secondary in comparison to Dončić. Will Irving see it that way? Will Dončić be willing to cede some offense when he’s on the court to Irving? Dallas’ best hope is that they will see things in those manners, and at the very least in the regular season. But what does this look like when the playoffs roll around? It’s going to require some give and take from both parties. Given how effective both are as dynamic shot creators, and given the way Dallas should be able to space the floor around them, this could end up being a devastating pairing together once they figure out the right rhythm. I tend to believe great players with elite dribble, pass and shoot games tend to figure it out. These are, indeed, two great players operating at an exceptionally high level.
Assuming Irving spends a bit more time spotting up, he should thrive. This season, he has taken 109 shots in spot-up situations and made them at a 60.6 effective field goal percentage, which is 34th out of the 189 players to take at least 100 such shots this season, according to Synergy. Last season, he was 48th best out of 257 players with 100 such attempts. In 2020-21, he was 29th best out of 229. We have a proven track record of Irving being awesome in these situations. Don’t sleep on Irving attacking off motion, either. Irving has the ninth-best effective field goal percentage off screens this season among the 54 players to have taken 40 such shots. The last two seasons in which he actually played a bit more substantially off screening actions were in Boston, where he took about two shots in such sets per game and was consistently in the top 30 percent of the league in terms of efficiency on them. If you can get Irving the ball in advantageous looks, something that should happen next to Dončić, he is going to be effective.
Even with Irving leading the
Nets in time of possession this season, he has played a bit more away from the ball than you’d think. The Nets tend to spread things around. Irving led the team in time of possession at 5.7 minutes per game, but that’s just 22nd leaguewide among the 30 players who lead their team in time of possession. In the tracking data era (going back to 2013-14), 5.7 minutes per game on the ball is virtually tied for the least amount of time Irving has spent with the ball in his hands.
Do you know who else averaged 5.7 minutes per game with the ball in his hands? Dinwiddie in Dallas. Among the 30 players in the league who have the ball in their hands second-most often on their team, Dinwiddie handled the ball third-most behind
Dejounte Murray and
Donovan Mitchell. Brunson had the ball in his hands for 5.4 minutes per game last season, which was fourth-most leaguewide among second bananas offensively. The Mavericks tend to let their second ballhandlers rock, especially in minutes when Dončić is not on the court, because the team does an excellent job of staggering its lead creators. Dinwiddie was on the court, per PBP Stats, for 704 of the 913 minutes when Dončić was off it. In those minutes, Dinwiddie averaged about 33.7 points per 100 possessions with a true shooting percentage of 56.6, a percentage and a half below league average. An enormous usage rate but not necessarily the most effective play.
All due respect to Dinwiddie, but that’s where this deal is going to make the biggest difference in the regular season. This season, when Dončić has left the court, the Mavericks’ offense has fallen off a cliff. With Dončić, Dallas’ offense averages 120.5 points per 100 possessions, per PBP Stats, a number that would top the league. Without Dončić, the team averages just 108.9 points per 100 possessions. That would be dead last in the NBA. The Mavs are winning Dončić’s minutes by four points per 100 possessions and losing the ones without him by nearly six. If they could lose Dončić’s minutes by two points per 100 possessions as opposed to almost six, they’d be about 1.5 points per 100 possessions per game better than they are currently. In terms of net-rating standings leaguewide, that would push them from 16th to ninth.
All told, I buy this trade for Dallas on offense as long as Irving enters the fold with the right attitude about playing off the ball.
theathletic.com
