STRENGTHS
One of the best players in high school basketball all through his time. Was the No. 1 player in his recruiting class as a junior before deciding to reclassify to attend Memphis a season earlier than expected. Had a good freshman year. Was first-team All-AAC and won Freshman of the Year in the AAC but did showcase some limitations that were not always evident in his game at the prep level where he could just dominate everyone physically.
Built like an NBA center right now at 18 years old. He is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and a physical frame in terms of power. Pairs that power with real explosiveness, especially as a leaper. Vertical pop is outstanding for a player his size. Has potential to be one of the elite lob-catchers in the NBA at some point. Plays with effort for the most part. Rebounds well. Tough to move once he establishes position and has a good standing vertical leap to high-point the ball. Takes contested rebounds. Scored about one-fifth of his points this past year on putbacks, per Synergy. Creates second chances by being bigger and longer than everyone.
That vertical pop plays up best right now as a rim protector. Blocked 10 percent of opponents’ 2-point attempts to lead the AAC. Pairs his size and length well and high-points the ball when swatting. Gets to balls you wouldn’t expect him to. Makes highlightreel plays out of nowhere because of his ability to cover ground both horizontally and vertically. Flies around rotationally at the rim, not as a traditional weakside guy coming from the corner but also from the foul line and out in transition. Because he’s so long, strong and can jump so high, it’s very difficult to finish over him. Opposing teams didn’t try him too often.
Has some moments as a switchable defender. Much better against guys who don’t have a ton of vertical pop and guys who can’t hit him with stepbacks. Does a pretty good job of getting in a defensive stance and sliding. Makes real effort away from the basket. Fights in recovery to try and contest too. Probably could stand to thin out some and add even more quickness. Unsure if he’ll ever be a guy you use switching one through five in a scheme, but he’s probably not going to get destroyed out on an island with wings.
Offensively, most of Duren’s success this past season involved running the floor and finishing above the rim. Catches well on the move, below his waist or above his waist. Catches with either one hand or two hands with ease. Plus, he’s fluid enough to quickly plant and go up to finish. Caught a ton of lobs this past season, be it out in transition, in the dunker spot or occasionally out of ball screens. Has no issue going up through contact once he gets downhill. Runs well and gets a lot of offense as a trailer or in transition on the break by sprinting and beating guys down the court. Even in the half court, he’s effective because of that leaping and dunking skill. Made 71 percent of his half-court shots at the rim, largely through being bigger and dunking on everyone. On top of that, Memphis didn’t get the best out of him in ball-screen actions because the Tigers had no spacing and very little from the point guard position. If you get Duren with a great passing point guard, it’s easy to imagine him becoming a highly effective offensive weapon in a DeAndre Jordan mold as a roll man simply because of how big, strong and powerfully explosive he is while also covering big swaths of ground quickly as a downhill runner.
Overall offensive game isn’t filled with polish, but he made some impressive passing reads that will be translatable to the NBA. Was a good release valve in short rolls, recognizing the tagger in four-on-three situations and hitting the kickout. Threw some good passes to the dunker spot out of these scenarios. Has shown the occasional pick-and-pop jumper from the midrange, and sometimes could knock down shots at the prep level.
WEAKNESSES
Having said that, Duren is limited right now on offense. Not at all a shot creator. Has bad footwork on the block and doesn’t keep his leveraged position well enough when trying to make plays happen. Everything is extremely robotic. Won’t be able to take advantage of mismatches on the block right now unless he’s purely able to bury someone underneath the rim. On top of that, he has no true left hand. Every attempt from the left side of the rim often ended up being with his right hand. It’s a significant problem for how NBA teams are going to be able to play him.
I also have touch questions with Duren. Throws a lot of very flat balls toward the rim when he can’t go through players or get downhill. Bad footwork also sticks out, as he has a bizarre tendency to put his right foot down first before his left as a righthanded shooter. Ends up having zero alignment with his body and the basket. He made 44 percent of his non-dunks this past season, per Synergy, and that includes making 49.5 percent of his non-dunks within eight feet. Seems to have that thing many players with enormous hands have where they hang onto the ball too long. This is a problem because he ends up settling for a lot of jumpers.
Not an awesome decision-maker. Throws some wild passes, and teams can unsurprisingly get into his handle whenever he puts the ball on the ground. Nearly posted a 1-to-2 assist-to-turnover ratio. Most of those issues come with the handle as opposed to the passing, as he struggles when doubled with a quick dig from an opponent. Can get a bit rushed. Early in his career, you’re going to want to limit him to rim-running and the occasional short roll. That’s OK, but the question teams will ask is whether a player this limited offensively is worth a top-10 pick.
While he does have some switchability on defense, I’m a bit worried about him facing up against the quickest guards in the NBA. He can get a bit heavy-footed at times. Reaction time overall isn’t awesome when sliding laterally; it’s much better when he can turn and run. In that vein, he will struggle with closeouts. Can get blown by sometimes or get momentarily caught before trying to recover too quickly and fouling because of body control issues. Can be hit by guards with quick, fluid moves. I see him as a drop defender above all, but not a switch guy.
For a teenager, he’s generally OK with angles out of drop coverages but has some work to do in terms of positioning to avoid fouling and getting himself slightly off-balanced. Needs to find a good coach who can help him in that aspect. Also needs to find a good coach to help him work on not leaping forward as a vertical rim deterrent. Sometimes will fly forward and into opposing players’ frames, making him a potential magnet for fouls from some of the best NBA players. Needs to avoid getting up in the air on pump fakes too. This is a fixable issue, but he needs to find the right teachers.
SUMMARY
Duren is a rim-running, shot-swatting big man — albeit one with good upside to be a starter because of how big, long, strong and athletic he is. He catches the ball well. He is explosive athletically and finishes above the rim. He has good shot-blocking instincts from the weak side and has the frame to turn into a primary rim protector with some work. The big question with Duren is, “How high do you draft someone whose game is relatively limited?” The swing skill for Duren is his perimeter defense. If he can prove to be reliable enough to stay on the court in space and not get beaten by opposing guards, he can be a top-10 center in the NBA. I brought up DeAndre Jordan earlier, and a lot of outcomes end with Duren being somewhat like peak Jordan. The game has changed enough to where I don’t think prime Jordan would top out as an All-NBA player in the 2020s and 2030s, but he can still be impactful through his sheer athleticism and strength. It took Jordan a few years to become a quality starter, and I can see it taking some time for Duren too. Long term, Duren needs to be able to stay on the floor in the biggest moments. I think he has potential if he can get with a coaching staff that can fix some of his minor, experience-based issues on defense, but it’s not a sure thing. Fit will be very important for him. Teams that think he’ll be able to do that will likely see him as a back-half-of-the-lottery guy. Teams that don’t will see him more as a mid-first-rounder.