Duren has a bit of leverage. He could play this season under the $9.6 million qualifying offer, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next offseason. That would mean leaving $170 million or more in guaranteed money on the table in the hopes of landing a four-year max deal from another suitor next summer.
Since 1998, only 21 former first-round picks signed the qualifying offer, none of whom took anything close to the kind of financial risk that Duren would. The closest comparison is former Pistons power forward Greg Monroe, who signed the $5.5 million qualifying offer in September 2014 and cashed in with a three-year, $50 million max contract from the
Milwaukee Bucks the next summer.
But Duren's situation is drastically different than Monroe's. Then-Pistons president/coach Stan Van Gundy had concerns about Monroe's fit alongside center
Andre Drummond and didn't offer a lucrative, long-term offer. There is no doubt that the current Detroit management views Duren as a key part of the franchise's future core alongside Cunningham and Thompson.
"The Pistons have got to manage their books the right way," a prominent agent who is not involved in the negotiations said. "They feel he should be rewarded. They have their concerns, but he's their guy. To me, the right money is in the mid to high 30s. I think that's the range, and I think this is just a staring contest that will end up in that area.
"If you're Duren's agent, are you really going to turn down $35-38 million [per year]? I wouldn't screw around with it."