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After further review
Following an intriguing playoff path to Detroit for Super Bowl XL
By Todd Wright
Dec. 16, 2005
Three weeks to go, and the possibilities are mesmerizing.
Minnesota can win the NFC North, Miami could still win the AFC East and Cincinnati may earn a first-round bye.
Three teams could qualify from one division, 10-6 may not be a playoff guarantee in either conference and three of the four teams that comprised last year’s Final Four may miss out altogether.
For all the mathematics of who can get into the NFL playoffs, I instead offer you a look at one plausible scenario, which creates an almost unbelievable run of postseason matchups:
(Note: I have not, do not and never will refer to the current games during the first weekend of the NFL playoffs as wild-card games. When there were only three divisions and two wild cards per conference, there was truly a wild-card game. Now, every NFL first-round playoff game is hosted by a division champion and should be respected and recognized for that accomplishment.)
NFC first round
Dallas at New York Giants
It’s one thing to have the Tuna back in the Meadowlands. It’s another to have him coaching against the Giants there in a playoff game. Each of the first two meetings between these NFC East rivals gave us a very clear key for this one: First team to score more than 10 points wins. Since Julius Jones can’t find the endzone, that means one more miscommunication between Terence Newman and Roy Williams leaves Eli with a wide-open target for a big touchdown. Moving on: Giants
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Congratulations, Coach Gruden. Know what you get as a reward for getting your Buccaneers back to the playoffs for the first time since winning it all? A first-round ego check against the quarterback who helped win you that Super Bowl — a guy you ran out of town last year. Still, something just doesn’t feel right here when you mix a Vikings team known for a sex cruise and those Tampa adult nightclubs. Moving on: Buccaneers
AFC first round
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
This would be the final game of a best-of-three series, pitting a franchise with one of the strongest reps in the NFL against a franchise with one of the worst. Still, the Bengals make a run every decade or so and you just know Chad Johnson may be more creative than a Bud Light Super Bowl ad if he scores and celebrates his first-ever playoff touchdown. After the game, a scowling Bill Cowher will blame just about anything (officials, instant replay, field conditions, chain gang, Skyline Chili-induced gas, etc.) for the loss — everything except himself. Moving on: Bengals
Jacksonville at New England
OK, of all the potential matchups discussed in this column, this one comes up a bit short. Still, with three games remaining against the Niners, Texans and Titans, the Jaguars will most likely return to the site of their first AFC title game in 1996. It almost seems like that long since the Jags beat a quality opponent, as they’ve played the equivalent of a Conference USA schedule the past two months of this season. This isn’t the Liberty Bowl and New England is a bit more formidable than Fresno State. Moving on: Patriots
NFC divisional playoffs
Tampa Bay at Chicago
No longer division rivals, but there’s still a lot of history between these two over the years. As a matter of fact, the Buccaneers closed the 2002 championship regular season with their coldest-ever victory in a win at the Bears. Of course, that was with Henry Burris playing quarterback for Chicago, although Kyle Orton, at times, doesn’t look much different. The top two defenses in the NFL won’t give up much in this one, but the Bears get more from their front four, and Brian Urlacher is playing at a higher level than Derrick Brooks. Moving on: Bears
New York Giants at Seattle
The city of Seattle hasn’t won a pro championship since the NBA’s Sonics in the late 1970s. The Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game in more than two decades. You have to learn to face yourself … Pressure. Are we sure these guys can handle this? Besides, the regular-season battle between these two teams was truly a classic and spawned one of the more-unique SNL skits in recent memory. Just the thought of Jay Feely warming up for another game-winning field goal at Seattle makes this game fantastic. Fourth time’s the charm, right? Moving on: Giants
AFC divisional playoffs
Cincinnati at Denver
The Broncos have battled all season to be in this position. Division champion. First-round bye. Home game in the second round. Now, in come those young and loose Bengals off a playoff win against Pittsburgh. That’s one more playoff victory than the Broncos have had since John Elway retired. One of the biggest keys for the Broncos all season has been their ability to win the turnover battle. Guess who’s the only team better at that? Of note, it will probably be colder when the Bengals get on the plane in Northern Kentucky than when they deplane in Colorado and this isn’t the old Mile High home field either. Moving on: Bengals
New England at Indianapolis
A game like this brings to mind the brilliance of Rebecca Lobo. A couple years ago, my remote broke and my TV was stuck on the NCAA women’s basketball championship game. In the pregame, guest analyst Lobo was asked to break down the matchup. “Nothing needs to be said. Just sit back and enjoy a great game between two great teams.” Thank you, Rebecca. Did you actually have the nerve to cash that ESPN check for your in-depth analysis? Anyway, it was one thing for the Colts to do it in the regular season, but as long as Tom Brady and Corey Dillon are healthy, it’ll be a true Waterloo if Indy can do it in this spot. Moving on: Colts
NFC championship game
New York Giants at Chicago
This game will bring back memories of the biggest whiff in Chicago over the last 20 years not executed by Sammy Sosa. Perhaps the only thing that we’ll see more the week leading up to this game than Sean Landeta’s failed punt in the 1985 game will be Fox promos for the new season of “American Idol.” That, or way too many stories on the potential Super Bowl battle of the Manning brothers. Says here, that battle looks to be at least one short even though I still don’t get the whole “Shake the Lake” thing. Moving on: Bears
AFC championship game
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
With the flaws of Brian Billick exposed in Baltimore these days, it’s pretty clear what Marvin Lewis meant to the Super Bowl run of the Ravens five seasons ago when he was defensive coordinator. Now in his third season as head coach in Cincinnati, Lewis has done wonders. However, his defense is still lacking and if they don’t get interceptions, they are in trouble. The Colts put up a season-high 45 points on this unit a month ago, so unless Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson can get to 50, forget it. Moving on: Colts
Super Bowl XL
Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Technically, the Chiefs have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but most consider the Colts to be the best. The numbers do back public opinion that the Bears have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. That alone makes this matchup interesting. Someone asked me the other day what could prevent the Colts from winning it all this year. I said, “Manning and Freeney being locked in their Detroit hotel rooms or the Bears’ defense at their absolute best.” The top defenses the Colts have faced this season are ranked sixth, seventh and eighth in the league. In those four games, the Colts have scored just 21.5 points per contest. While the Bears have only scored more than 20 twice all season, the matchup still has the potential to be competitive. Remember, the last time the top defense played the top offense in the Super Bowl, it was the team with the defense that won going away (Tampa Bay over Oakland in Super Bowl XXXVII).
Besides, I’d also be very interested to see how another long-awaited Bears trip to the Super Bowl would allow former coach Mike Ditka to actually go above and beyond all the recent ways he has shamelessly sold himself out.