Dallas is rolling after trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. But are they really title threats?
Behold, everyone, our new Western contender … but you might not want to look too closely.
With their eighth straight win Monday -- a streak that includes seven victories over playoff contenders -- the Dallas Mavericks eased past the Denver Nuggets into the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference. And the streak might not end any time soon. The Mavericks' next seven games look eminently winnable (home against Minnesota, Sacramento, New Jersey, New York and Chicago; at Chicago and Minnesota), which could have them riding a 15-game win streak when Boston visits March 20. Things will get significantly more difficult from there, but if Dallas takes care of business against the doormats, it should hang on to its second seed in the West.
Dallas' recent run coincides with a trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, leading one to wonder whether the Mavs have recast themselves as legitimate threats to win the conference.
Look a little deeper, however, and the Mavs' résumé isn't nearly as impressive. They have gone 8-1 since their trade with Washington on Feb. 13, but they have outscored their opposition by only 5.3 points per game during that time. In other words, during their best stretch of the season, they still haven't matched the scoring margin of elite teams such as the Cavs (plus-7.3), Lakers (plus-6.4) and Magic (plus-5.8), and they barely exceed the marks of the Celtics, Hawks, Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs.
The Mavs' winning streak has come against some difficult opposition, but some easy matchups -- home games against Indiana and a Dwyane Wade-less Miami team, for instance -- have produced close shaves. In fact, Dallas hasn't won a game by more than 10 points since Jan. 24.
Which takes us to the No. 1 item in my inbox at the moment: How do the Mavericks, who have the second-best record in the West and fourth-best in the league, rank a measly 12th in the Power Rankings?
Let's break down Dallas' body of work. Despite its impressive win-loss record, it has the league's 12th-best scoring margin at plus-2.25 points per game. Normally, a team with that margin would be 36-25; the Mavs are 40-21 thanks to freakishly good fortune in close games. (They're 15-5 in contests decided by five points or fewer.)
Dallas gets a boost in the daily Power Rankings from its schedule, which has been more difficult than league average, and its home-road differential (29 home games, 32 on the road) -- two factors that will even out in a hurry during the next seven games.
However, the other component factoring into the rankings is recent play. And in the most recent 25 percent of their schedule, the Mavs -- even with the win streak -- have an average scoring margin barely above par at plus-0.13.
That stretch includes a 36-point loss to Denver that could be relabeled as a loss to the schedule, as it came on the back end of a ridiculously unfair back-to-back after a game in Golden State. (I often wonder whether the NBA's schedule makers ever travel west of the Mississippi. Did they think that because Colorado was only two states away, it wouldn't be a long flight?)
But if you take the Denver debacle off the Mavericks' résumé, it still doesn't improve much. Dallas would have the league's 11th-best scoring margin on the season instead of the 12th, and its margin of victory in the past quarter of its schedule would be a still-unimpressive plus-2.13. Overall, the Mavs would be just 10th in the Power Rankings and still well behind the top nine teams. And, of course, this would be after giving them a major benefit of the doubt: They're not the only team to be victimized by unfortunate schedule arrangements.
Dig deeper, and still, nothing about the Mavs screams "contender." They rank 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. Their offense is predicated on the lowest-percentage shot in the game, the long 2, and three Mavs (Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Butler) are among the league's leading practitioners of the shot. Sure, that trio converts from midrange more often than most, but it's still a difficult way to build a high-powered offense.
Thus, if the Mavs are to be legit, they will have to improve on defense. That's where the additions of Haywood and, to a lesser extent, DeShawn Stevenson, could help. But even if those two vault the Mavs all the way into the league's top five in defensive efficiency -- an unlikely occurrence -- they still would be on an even footing with only the West's other second-tier teams.
As a result, we're left to deal with one of the season's great paradoxes. With 40 wins in the bank and a favorable remaining schedule, Dallas is likely to attain the second seed in the West. Yet it has the statistical profile of a much lower contender, and even its post-trade win streak hasn't changed that outlook significantly.
I don't want to completely dismiss the Mavs' prospects because they could land home-court advantage for two playoff rounds, and I'd like to see them play a few more games with their new acquisitions. But despite the recent win streak, my outlook on Dallas really hasn't changed much. Until further notice, it's a pretty good team … but one that's unlikely to topple the three fantastic ones it would have to get past in the Western Conference playoffs.
