So das alljährliche Tier System von Draft-Guru Chad Ford.
Tier 1
Players:
None
Note: This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars and franchise players. Since 2009, only Blake Griffin, John Wall and Anthony Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there just isn't anyone who looks like a "sure-fire" anything.
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Tier 2
Players:
None
Note: Tier 2 is reserved for players who are projected as potential All-Stars by scouts. They are typical high lottery picks in a normal draft. Last year Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes,Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all got the nod as Tier 2 players. In 2011, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were in this tier.
This year, I couldn't get a majority of teams to project anyone in this draft as a potential All-Star. Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore and Anthony Bennett all got a vote or two from teams that had them in Tier 2. But the overwhelming majority of teams I talked to had these players all ranked as Tier 3 prospects. This is the first draft tiers column I've ever done where there no players ranked in Tier 2.
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Tier 3
Players:
Anthony Bennett
Alex Len
Ben McLemore
Nerlens Noel
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter Jr.
Note: These are the top six guys in the draft. Noel, Bennett and McLemore each received a small amount of votes for Tier 2, but the majority of teams I spoke with had them in Tier 3. This is one of the very few places in the draft that you'll find consensus. While there are a few exceptions, there's a very good chance that these six players will be the first six players to hear their names called on draft night. Teams have these six ordered differently depending on team needs or whether they are looking for immediate help or upside, but every team I spoke with had these six as their top six in some order.
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Tier 4
Players:
Steven Adams
Trey Burke
Michael Carter-Williams
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
C.J. McCollum
Cody Zeller
Note: After Tier 3, the consensus breaks down pretty quickly. These are typical late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10-20. In this draft this group is more likely to be drafted in the 7-14 range. Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum and Michael Carter-Williams got a small number of votes for Tier 3. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Zeller was ranked in Tier 4 by every team I spoke with. Caldwell-Pope and Adams had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority were in Tier 4.
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Tier 5
Players:
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Reggie Bullock
Isaiah Canaan
Allen Crabbe
Gorgui Dieng
Jamaal Franklin
Rudy Gobert
Archie Goodwin
Erick Green
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Pierre Jackson
Sergey Karasev
Shane Larkin
Ricardo Ledo
C.J. Leslie
Tony Mitchell
Shabazz Muhammad
Lucas Nogueira
Kelly Olynyk
Mason Plumlee
Glen Rice Jr.
Dennis Schroeder
Tony Snell
Jeff Withey
Nate Wolters
Note: This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round.
A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts.
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Tier 6
Players:
Alex Abrines
Lorenzo Brown
Jackie Carmichael
James Ennis
Colton Iverson
Livio Jean-Charles
Grant Jerrett
Myck Kabongo
Ray McCallum
Nemanja Nedovic
Phil Pressey
Andre Roberson
B.J. Young
Note: This tier has the players who were listed as top 60 prospects by the majority of the teams I spoke with. Of the group, only Abrines, Jerrett and Pressey got some Tier 5 votes.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have had success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it has proven to be a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.