All the pressure was off Federer in the semis. Is that the case in the final?
I think he still comes in with more to gain than to lose. Yesterday, throwing a little cold water on the moment, a reporter brought up his last French final against Nadal here, in 2008, when he won four games. Federer didn’t flinch. He says everyone knows he hasn’t had success against Rafa here, but that the other matches were competitive. He can’t really do worse than the ’08 final, so in that sense there’s not a ton of pressure.
But there’s more than there was against Djokovic. This is a Slam final, first of all, and every player from Pete Sampras on down will tell you there’s a special tension to that, to the extra pageantry, to knowing that the world is watching and that a victory suddenly means so much more than just winning a match. It’s also Federer’s first major final since the 2010 Australian Open, 17 months ago. He’ll be excited to be back, and probably feel that this is where he belongs, but he also won’t want to squander this opportunity. And it’s a major opportunity. If Federer beats Nadal at the French, it may go down as the biggest win of his career, the final proof of his immortality, etc. It might even be one to walk away on, but Federer, as he showed yesterday, isn’t going anywhere.
Based on their current form, do you expect Nadal to employ his traditional game plan against Federer (relentless targeting of the backhand)?
Why not? Federer’s backhand held up very well yesterday. He defended brilliantly and also came over it with power and consistency. But that’s still different from facing Nadal’s forehand. In his last two matches, and especially against Robin Soderling in the quarters, Nadal’s shots off that side were divebombing into the court and kicking high. Soderling, who’s taller than Federer, had to reach up to hit his backhand.
It should also be said that Nadal doesn’t just attack Federer’s backhand out of a lack of imagination or pure expediency. Doing one thing for a long period is a good way to create the possibility for the element of surprise when you really need a point. Nadal, as we know, has a knack for firing a serve in the opposite direction when the other guy isn’t expecting it. He hasn’t needed to do that a whole lot against Federer at the French, but if this one is closer, which I think it will be, you’ll likely see more changes of pace from Rafa.
How much of a factor will the crowd be?
I was here for the 2006 and '07 Federer-Nadal finals, and while the crowd was certainly pro-Federer, it wasn’t to anywhere near the degree that it was yesterday. Even when Federer won the first set of their 2006 final 6-1, the audience didn’t erupt the way they did on Friday, or back him so vocally in the tight moments. The Parisian audience’s support and identification with Federer have grown since, in part because of his emotional run here in 2009.
They made a difference yesterday, no question, and I think they’ll help Federer on Sunday as well. But Nadal is a master of blocking out external circumstances. Support for him over the years here has been mostly grudging, a couple of times even hostile, and he’s still won the tournament five times. Nadal basically ignores it and acts as if this is his favorite place in the world to play. It’s worked so far, but if Federer wins a close set, the way he did against Djokovic yesterday, there will be a groundswell behind him that Nadal likely hasn’t felt before.
Who has more to gain from winning?
Federer can win his 17th major, prove to any doubters or asterisk-ascribers that his 2009 French title was not a one-time event brought about by the lords of tennis fate and a man named Robin Soderling, and make himself a Slam-winning force at the top of the sport once again. Nadal can tie Bjorn Borg with his sixth Roland Garros, take a step closer to Federer in the Slam count by winning his 10th, and re-establish himself as the world’s No. 1 and master of clay. There's a lot going on for both guys.
But it’s Federer who has more to gain. While he has won the French, a fact that will help him be more relaxed tomorrow than he might have been in the past, the one thing he has never done is beat Nadal there. Rafa spoiled his Grand Slam quests in Paris in 2006 and 2007, and handed him his most embarrassing loss the following year. At the same time, Nadal broke through and beat Federer on his own turf, in the ’08 Wimbledon final. As big as the 2009 French was for Federer, this would be bigger. As Federer said yesterday, "It always seems to me that Rafa needs to be in the French Open final to make it special, and I got the match I guess I was hoping for. After beating Novak, it's in a way a gift that I get the chance, and I'm looking forward to it."