Yes, believe it or not, LewIS-TysON is on and for the first time in his 54 fight career, Mike Tyson finds himself in the role of the underdog. In addition to a huge edge in height and reach (also about twenty pounds in weight), Lewis has been the busier fighter against better opposition over the past five years.
Since unraveling in the third round of his rematch with Evander Holyfield on 6/28/97, Tyson has fought just six fights that totaled 19 rounds. His longest outing was seven rounds, last October, vs. Danish pastry Brian Nielsen. Frans Botha was outboxing him for four rounds before he got careless and was iced by a single right hand. Tyson flirted with disqualifications in his fights vs. Orlin Norris (dropped Norris after the bell) and Lou Savarese (pushed referee to get to Savarese after fight was stopped.) He ko'd the troubled Andrew Golota in three rounds, but failed his post fight drug test (marijuana).
Lewis has fought eleven times during that same span. He decisioned Holyfield twice (first fight scored a draw), totally shut down David Tua, landing a CompuBox heavyweight record 213 jabs. He blew away Botha, Michael Grant and Shannon Briggs. He also devastated Hasim Rahman in their rematch last November.
Statistically it's no contest. In his two fights with Holyfield, Lewis landed 23 of the 46 punches he threw (50%). He went 11 of 25 in the all important jab department (44%). In the power punch department, Lewis was 12 of 21 (57%) vs. Holyfield. Lewis limited Holyfield to less than 10 connects in 6 of the 12 rounds in their first fight.
Tyson threw just 29 punches per round in his two losses to Holyfield, landing only 7 per round (24%). He landed just 1 of 9 jabs (11%) and 6 of 20 (30%) in the power punch department. Tyson got off only 29 per round vs. Botha as well. Botha kept Tyson at bay by throwing 21 jabs per round. He didn't possess the punching power to dissuade Mike. Tyson landed 4 of the 8 jabs he threw per round vs. Botha.
Buster Douglas, in his masterful performance vs. Tyson over 12 years ago, averaged 24 jabs per round and landed 13 (54%). The jab set up the power punches that Douglas rained on Tyson for 10 rounds. Tyson responded by throwing just 21 punches per round. See the pattern? In his prime, Tyson fought past the jab, he averaged 41 punches per round vs. Pinklon Thomas despite Thomas throwing 24 jabs per round. Mike got off 53 punches per round when he ko'd Trevor Berbick in two rounds to become the youngest heavyweight champion at age 20. His best performance statistically came against Jose Ribalta in 1986. Mike averaged 18 jabs per round and landed an incredible 80% of his power punches!
The key to this fight is Lewis' jab. When Lennox throws 25 or more jabs per round, he's tough to beat. He averaged 31 per round in the first Holyfield fight and handled him easy. In the rematch, Lennox averaged 19 per round and made it a tougher fight. He averaged 27 in the rematch with Rahman after getting outjabbed in the first fight and he was ko'd.
If any fighter today has a puncher's chance, it's Tyson. He can bang with either hand, but needs to get close to do damage. Can he find his jab again and use it to offset Lewis' jab and allow him to get into punching range? Can he throw more than one punch at a time? He doesn't figure to land the big bomb on Lennox without throwing combinations. Will Lennox fight aggressively? He was criticized for not stepping it up vs. Holyfield I and Tua. Will he let Tyson in the fight by not following the jab with power shots? Tyson takes a good shot, how much will he take before looking for a way out? The feeling here is Tyson will be dangerous early, until Lewis' right hands begin finding their mark in the middle rounds leading to a stoppage.