Outlook
OK, they foul on every play. The good news is that if they just cut the foul rate a little bit, they can be good enough defensively to allow the offense to win games for them. And we have reason to suspect they can pull that feat off. Between Brewer's emergence as a stopper on the wings, a likely reduction in playing time for high-foul players like Harpring and Collins, and, more hopefully, some recognition by Sloan that this state of affairs must change, it seems plausible for the Jazz to improve here.
If so, it's hard to argue with them in the West, because they've got everything else. The Jazz have go-to stars in both the backcourt and the frontcourt, have multiple scoring weapons surrounding them, and have arguably the deepest team in the conference. That last point is important, because this team is tailor-made for the regular-season grind --it can easily survive minor injuries and slumps and has no player who is too indispensable.
Additionally, they're still on the upswing. Williams is 24, Boozer is 26, and every key player except Harpring is in his 20s. Okur and Korver are both likely to have better years than a season ago, but nobody except perhaps Harpring projects to sharply regress.
Add it all up and the Jazz, perhaps a bit surprisingly, came out with the top record in the West when I projected each team's outcome -- beating out the Lakers by a single game. L.A. has the higher ceiling, and arguably so does Houston, but the Jazz have a far better likelihood of getting close to their roof.
Taking things a step further, picking the Jazz to have home-court advantage by virtue of the best record in the West means one almost has to pick them to win the conference, too -- between the altitude and the crowd's impact on the zebras, this team is nigh unbeatable at home. It's a crowded race and they're one of three teams I see as having roughly equal odds of making it out, but if I have to pick a horse out West, this is the one.
Prediction: 58-24, 1st in Northwest Division, 1st in Western Conference
