Hallo, habe einen Artikel aus dem ESPN-Insider gelesen, der euch auch interessieren dürfte. Ich habe auch schonmal mit ne1 über der Mavs-Offense gesprochen, und dieser Artikel bespricht diese. Ist von John Hollinger, wie man unschwer an den vielen statistischen Argumenten erkennen kann
Ask anyone why the Dallas Mavericks have the best record in the Western Conference, and the first guess will be defense.
Guess again. Under Avery Johnson, the Mavs indeed have become a much better defensive team compared to the Don Nelson era … but that improvement actually happened a year ago. The Mavs finished 2004-05 ranked ninth in the league in Defensive Efficiency, my measure of a team's points allowed per 100 opponent possessions, and that standing hasn't budged in 2005-06. In fact, the Mavs are defending worse this year than they did in the 31 games Johnson was on the sideline (as either head coach or "acting" head coach) in 2004-05.
Yet the Mavs as a whole are playing much better basketball than they did a year ago. They were hardly chopped liver last season, winning 58 games, but this year they're on pace to win 66. That eight-game difference is perhaps a slight exaggeration because it partly reflects Dallas' performance in close games this year, but even in terms of Expected Wins, the Mavs are 4.3 games better this season.
Since we can't cite defensive improvement as the cause, that leaves us with only one culprit: the offense. For all the talk of how the Mavs have shaped up defensively, the fact is their offense is an incredible force. In fact, the Mavs rank No. 1 in Offensive Efficiency, having recently surpassed the Pistons.
Where it gets real interesting is when we start examining how they're No. 1. Most of you will recall that the Mavericks employed a certain shaggy-haired Canadian point guard two years ago and then watched him sign as a free agent with the Suns. Without Steve Nash, Dallas initially slipped -- it had led the league in Offensive Efficiency in Nash's final two seasons before finishing fifth last year. Meanwhile, Nash took his frenetic style to Phoenix and helped the Suns finish first in Offensive Efficiency while playing the league's fastest pace.
Here's where the story twists, because in Nash's absence, Dallas has practically become the anti-Suns. While Phoenix still plays the league's fastest pace, the Mavs now play among the league's slowest -- they rank 24th in the league in Pace Factor, way down from last year, when they were ninth.
Incidentally, this is also why some erroneously assume the Mavs have taken another step forward defensively -- the Mavs average more than four possessions a game fewer than last season, so the resultant decline in their opponents' scoring average from 96.8 to 93.1 is superficially quite impressive.
The slower pace is not the only change. While the Suns are a one-and-done club, sporting what is easily the worst Offensive Rebound Rate in basketball, the Mavs rank third in the NBA in this category. This is where getting "true centers" such as Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop has really helped them. With the Mavs' slowing things down to let the big fellas get upcourt, they can crash the glass and use their size to get an abundance of second shots. Dampier, though disappointing in many other ways, has the league's best Offensive Rebound Rate, while Diop ranks ninth.
Perhaps the most amazing part is what the Mavs are doing as passers. Or rather, not doing. For all the talk we hear about the importance of point guards, and particularly of Nash in Phoenix, the Mavs are providing a glaring exception to the rule. Dallas has the league's best offense even though it ranks 27th in the NBA in Assist Rate. (Phoenix, as you might have guessed, is first.)
And if you just go by the percentage of made baskets that are assisted, Dallas is dead last, according to 82Games.com -- barely half of the Mavs' baskets have come thanks to a pass (50.3 percent; the league average is 57.3 percent and Phoenix is third at 64.7 percent).
In other words, the Mavs have risen to the top by playing more of that supposedly outdated, selfish, one-on-one, isolation basketball than anybody else.
They certainly have the personnel for it. Dallas has two shoot-first point guards in Jason Terry and Devin Harris, guys who come off a screen looking to fire away or get to the basket rather than drop it off to the screener. Their wing players are guys such as Jerry Stackhouse, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels -- just OK on the catch-and-shoot, but blazing fast when they take their man off the dribble. Dirk Nowitzki is a great catch-and-shoot guy, but also can terrorize shorter forwards on post-ups or by just shooting over them. And Dampier and Diop, of course, have clearly been told not to expect the ball unless it hits the rim first.
All those one-on-one drives have another effect as well: The Mavs shoot a ton of foul shots. While Nash's Suns are dead last in the league in free throws per field-goal attempt, the Mavs rank fifth. They're good at them, too, hitting 76.5 percent. Meanwhile, the 3-pointer has been relegated to secondary status in the Dallas attack. Only about one shot in six by Dallas is from downtown, well below the league average, and individually only Terry, Nowitzki, and Keith Van Horn take the shot with any frequency.
Perhaps no individual Mav personifies this shift in modus operandi better than Nowitzki, who had a whopping 74 percent of his baskets assisted by a teammate in 2003-04, but only 53 percent a year later when Nash left (he's at 54 percent this year). Obviously, Nowitzki had to find a very different way to get his shots, and the 7-footer has done it by shooting fewer 3-pointers and posting up at the elbow more often for turnarounds against overmatched power forwards.
So maybe we need to throw out that wimpy, Western basketball stereotype that has been associated with the Mavs. Forget the defense part -- look at this offense. It has smashmouth, East Coast basketball written all over it. Instead of a frantic pace with 3-pointers raining from all over the place, Dallas has slowed the pace, pounded the glass, and beaten opponents with one-on-one play in the half court. And the Mavs are doing it so well that they're the best offensive team in basketball.
Thus, when San Antonio faces Dallas tonight, the Spurs will be looking at a very different Mavericks team than what we've become accustomed to. Yes, the defense is there, but the real story of these Mavericks is an offensive overhaul that's been more successful than anyone could have imagined.