The matchup: Curry vs. Harden
The Rockets love to isolate Harden, but when they play Golden State, it's more accurate to say that they love to isolate him against
Stephen Curry. Over the past three seasons, nobody has switched onto Harden as much as Curry, and
that's no accident.
Aside from splashing all those 3-pointers, the defining trait of the Warriors' dynasty might be the tendency to switch defensive assignments. The Rockets try to exploit that tendency by hunting and isolating mismatches more than any other rival.
Dating to the 2016-17 season, more than 2,800 unique NBA player duos have matched up at least 125 times. Within that sample, Harden vs. Curry produces the most extreme stats.
Lest you think we're exaggerating, consider these four factoids, via Second Spectrum tracking:
- No other matchup elicits a higher usage rate by the offensive player
- Only one matchup is more likely to include a drive
- Only two other matchups produce free throws at a higher rate
- No other matchup yields more points for the offensive player
Out of more than 2,800.
Harden vs. Curry is the wildest analytical matchup in the NBA, especially when you consider the stakes involved. After all, these are
two MVPs and scoring champs battling for Western Conference supremacy.
When you compare Harden's key matchup numbers with other Golden State defenders, you quickly understand why Houston designs sets to target Curry:
Harden Vs. GSW (2016-17 To Present)
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DEFENDER | USAGE RATE | DRIVE RATE | FT RATE | POINTS |
---|
Stephen Curry | 50.3 | 42.5 | 19.2 | 52.7 |
Draymond Green | 37.1 | 22.4 | 5.6 | 35.5 |
Kevin Durant | 33.6 | 15.8 | 5.8 | 36.0 |
Klay Thompson | 27.0 | 21.2 | 6.1 | 28.5 |
Andre Iguodala | 28.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 20.1 |
Source: Second Spectrum, per 100 possessions | | | | |
Harden is much more aggressive and much more fruitful against Curry than against any other Warriors player. His usage rate surges to 50.3 -- right around the average for an "NBA Jam" game, but a cartoonish number for any real-life environment.
With Curry on him, Harden is more than twice as likely to drive to the basket and get to the free throw line.
The other guys in that table are either strong enough or long enough to dissuade Harden's aggression, but Curry is slight and short compared to his teammates, and he is much less able to slow Harden's rim attacks.
While it's tempting to interpret the data as an indictment of Curry's defense, there's something else happening here. It just so happens that all of the other defenders in that table are world class, and Houston's tendency to isolate and attack Curry at freakish rates says just as much about its respect for those other dudes as it does about Curry. Isolating Curry isn't Houston's best choice, but
it's really the Rockets' only chance.
-- Kirk Goldsberry