Kann hier vielleicht jemand den "2010-11 Forecast" von Hollinger über die Heat posten?
2009-10 Recap
So … now what?
For those of you who vacationed in Timbuktu all summer, the Miami Heat had a bit of a productive offseason. The nearly unanimous opinion is that the "Miami Thrice" crew of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh should be amazing, so let me begin by pointing out that their success is not preordained.
In a 30-team league, it takes only one hot team to knock another from its perch -- as a seemingly indomitable Los Angeles Lakers team found out in 2004, for instance. Miami will face challenges against virtually any opponent with quality size, including the two they're most likely to face in the last two playoff rounds -- Orlando and the Lakers. And, of course, health is not guaranteed -- both Wade and Bosh have histories of injuries.
HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS
W-L: 47-35 (Pythagorean W-L: 49-33)
Offensive Efficiency: 104.5 (19th)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (4th)
Pace Factor: 92.0 (28th)
Highest PER: Dwyane Wade (28.10)
So let's not plan the championship parade just yet. There's still a lot of work to be done before the Heat win one title, let alone the five or six some are predicting.
In fact, comparing Miami's summer to other historic offseasons offers some cautionary tales. While the 2008 Celtics became immediate champions after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, the 2004 Lakers with Karl Malone and Gary Payton sputtered against a more disciplined and cohesive Detroit team.
Another offseason that compares to Miami's was the Lakers' in 1996, when L.A. landed Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant. That was a little different, of course, because the Lakers needed to wait on a teenaged Bryant to develop and wouldn't win a title for another four years.
2009-10 PER Leaders
Player Current team PER
LeBron James Mia 31.19
Dwyane Wade Mia 28.10
Kevin Durant OKC 26.23
Chris Bosh Mia 25.11
It would be a crushing disappointment for the Heat if they met a similar fate. Miami has three superstars in their primes -- James is 25, Bosh is 26 and Wade 28. Each is arguably the league's best player at his position, with the trio occupying three of the top four spots in the 2009-10 PER rankings (see chart).
That too is unprecedented in the modern era, although it likely happened in 1968 with the Lakers. That team brought together Elgin Baylor, Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain, and while the PER numbers from those seasons are inexact due to the lack of individual turnover data (the league didn't track this until 1973-74), it appears Chamberlain, West and Baylor captured first, third and fourth, respectively, in 1967-68, and also represented three of the top five in 1968-69.
That's an interesting example, of course, because the Lakers never won a championship with the three superstars in their prime. It wasn't until 1971-72, after Baylor retired, that they finally won a ring.
Astute observers will note that one of the reserves on that Lakers team was Pat Riley, the architect of this season's Heat. His big-picture focus over the past two seasons is a big reason the Heat are in their current position. Riley knew he could pair Wade with another superstar if he managed his cap dollars right; he knew Miami's weather, taxes and nightlife made it a premium free-agent destination; and he knew he could sell players on his winning pedigree.
One suspects he also knew the league would look the other way if he tampered a little. Certainly his midseason shindig with James and Michael Jordan in Miami came close to the line, and it appears part of the reason the eventual sign-and-trades for James and Bosh included draft picks was as part of a quid pro quo for Cleveland and Toronto not to file tampering charges.
Riley, too, is aware of the pitfalls. The fact James, Wade and Bosh are good friends likely reduces the potential for a rivalry like the Kobe-Shaq feud that tore apart L.A. in 2004, while James' pass-first instincts reduce the potential for role confusion.
Finally, while some wonder if Riley will get antsy for coaching again and torpedo coach Erik Spoelstra -- much as he did to Stan Van Gundy in 2006 -- it appears Riley is content to stay upstairs and piece the team together. His track record argues for staying upstairs, too; he's been dramatically more effective as an executive when he hasn't tried to combine it with coaching.
And Spoelstra, it should be noted, produced amazing work with last season's bunch. I have no idea how this team won 47 games, especially since Wade showed up in less-than-ideal shape because he knew full well his cohorts weren't championship material. Nonetheless, Spoelstra inspired an impassioned defensive performance from his modestly talented and mostly undersized bunch, with Miami somehow finishing fourth in the league in defensive efficiency.
Opponent FG% Leaders, 2009-10
Team 2-pt.FG% Tot. FG%
Orlando 45.9 43.8
Miami 46.9 43.9
Cleveland 47.1 44.2
Chicago 47.2 44.2
LA Lakers 48.1 44.6
NBA avg. 46.1 46.1
One area in which they particularly excelled was at challenging shots. Miami rated second in the NBA in both opponent field goal percentage and opponent 2-point shooting percentage, helping offset a propensity for fouling. All this bodes well for the Heat's chances of sporting an elite defense in 2010-11, as the secondary players will have to show a similar spirit on D. The more difficult adjustment will be for either Wade or James to take on the stopper's role against high-scoring wings. Both are more comfortable as freelancers on the weak side.
Meanwhile, the Heat should be unguardable offensively. A typical play might start with a James-Bosh pick-and-roll and instant dilemma for the defense -- James can drive, or hit Bosh rolling, or hit Bosh spotting up on the perimeter. And if the opponent sends extra help, Wade is cutting on the weak side for an easy bucket, or Mike Miller is spotting up for a 3. Good luck stopping that.
Perhaps the Heat will also use the right side of the floor this season. Wade and the departed Jermaine O'Neal placed first and second in "left-right" differential last season, and the Heat claimed three of the league's top five. Wade loves to run the side pick-and-roll from the left and Bosh likes the left side too, although James is much more right-dominant.
As good as they look this season, the Heat are likely to get better as time goes on and they're able to make adjustments. For example, they'll likely use cap exceptions in future seasons to build out the rest of the roster since the supporting cast is quite weak. The biggest obstacle to a lengthy Heat run atop the East, in fact, is probably the next collective bargaining agreement. If the new CBA prohibits cap exceptions, establishes a hard cap or otherwise constrains the Heat's options, it may be much more difficult to build a quality team around their three stars. That's one more reason not to jump the gun and begin awarding the Heat multiple championships, as inevitable as it may seem at the moment.
Offseason Moves
Chris Bosh
The best part of Miami's epic free-agent haul is that Riley convinced his three stars to take less money so he wouldn't have to gut the entire team around them. That allowed Miami to fill out the roster more ably than most anticipated.
Traded Daequan Cook and the No. 18 pick to Oklahoma City for a second-round pick. This trade appears to make no sense until you realize it opened the cap space for Miami's other moves. Cook was awful last year and the cap hold on the No. 18 pick was going to be an impediment to the Heat's free-agent plans. The second-round pick was swapped back to the Thunder for a similar pick in 2011, and that pick was later sent to Cleveland.
Drafted Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado and Da'Sean Butler. It was smart of Miami to build with second-round picks and avoid the salary-cap hit that would come with guaranteed first-round money, but these three will make little or no impact this season. Butler is coming off a bad knee injury and may not be ready until later in the season. Pittman is huge but needs to get in shape, although Miami has enjoyed more success with players like him than other teams have (Udonis Haslem, Ike Austin). Varnado is likely to play in Europe.
Bought out forward James Jones, re-signed Jones for two years, veteran's minimum. Jones should be a 10-day contract guy at this point, but it appears the Heat carved out some additional cap space for themselves by buying out Jones' contract on favorable terms with a wink-wink agreement that they'd hand him a multiyear minimum deal later in the summer. That's the only sane reason to give a guy who shot 36.9 percent and 36.1 percent the past two seasons a guaranteed multiyear deal.
Traded Michael Beasley to Minnesota for a 2011 second-round pick and a 2014 second-round pick. Again, Miami carved out cap space by trading Beasley -- a talented player but a superfluous one after the additions of James and Bosh at the forward spots. The second-round pick from Minnesota almost makes up for losing their first-round pick in the Bosh sign-and-trade -- it might be the next pick, in fact.
Re-signed Dwyane Wade to a six-year, $108 million deal. Interestingly, Wade took $2.3 million less over the six years than his two new teammates. It shouldn't affect his day-to-day much.
Traded a 2011 first-rounder and returned Toronto's 2011 first-rounder in a six-year, $110 million sign-and-trade for Chris Bosh. As noted above, sending the two first-rounders to Toronto essentially provided shush money to sidestep any tampering claim by the Raptors. The Heat showed a sense of humor by lottery-protecting the first-rounder they sent to the Raptors; I doubt we'll be revisiting that topic.
Traded 2013 and 2015 first-rounders, 2012 second-rounder from New Orleans, rights to future second-rounder from Oklahoma City and right to exchange first-round picks in 2012 to Cleveland in six-year, $110 million sign-and-trade for LeBron James. Again, throwing in all these picks for James essentially quiets any claim Cleveland could make about tampering. It's possible the picks will go to Cleveland later than 2013, but only in the cataclysmic event that the Heat finish with one of the league's 10 worst records in 2012-13.
Let Quentin Richardson, Jermaine O'Neal and Dorell Wright go. Let's just say they found some solid alternatives at these three spots.
Signed Mike Miller for five years, $30 million. The money was a bit extravagant considering Miller's production over the past two seasons. For some reason, the dude just won't shoot the ball. Yet it's hard to argue with the big-picture perspective here. The Heat found the best shooter available and threw money at him until he agreed; given the need for floor spacers around James and Wade, this was the right play.
Re-signed Udonis Haslem for five years, $20 million. Haslem turned down other teams' offers for the full midlevel exception, albeit only three years, to take a longer deal from Miami. The Heat's tactics here were smart -- they gave the same money over more years, so while the end of this contact might get ugly (he's 30), it allows Miami to fill out its roster now. They should have more depth on hand by the time they need to worry about the tail end of the deal.
Signed Zydrunas Ilgauskas for two years, veteran's minimum. Miami was desperate for size and floor spacing and got both in one shot with Ilgauskas. While he declined precipitously last season, he's an inexpensive stopgap for the Heat at the backup center position.
Signed Joel Anthony for five years, $18 million. This was a really clever piece of cap management … followed by a really bad one. Anthony's cap hold as a restricted free agent was only $1.06 million, even though Miami could pay him up to the midlevel exception. So Miami made Anthony a qualifying offer, inked their other free-agent deals and then signed Anthony to the above contract after its cap space was gone.
The problem was that the Heat gave him a "proud father" contract. Anthony was undrafted out of college but hung on with Miami as a bit player, did everything they asked of him and worked hard enough to become a halfway decent role player.
Miami is justifiably pleased, but its pride resulted in the classic Heat mistake of falling head over heels for overachieving role players. Virtually every bad Heat contract in the Riley era has been for such types, most notably Brian Grant. Historically, a five-year deal for a 27-year-old energy guy with no skills is about as bad a gamble as a team can make.
Re-signed Carlos Arroyo for one year, veteran's minimum. Arroyo came surprisingly cheap but may start at the point after wresting the job from Mario Chalmers last season.
Signed Eddie House for two years, veteran's minimum. House struggled last year but is familiar with the Heat system from a previous tour of duty, and he serves as another shooter to space the floor. Given the ballhandling skill of Wade and James, House could see considerable time as a nominal point guard who is asked mainly to spot up on the wing.
Signed Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire for one year, veteran's minimum. Miami filled out its bench with a pair of replacement-level big men who will provide 12 more fouls to use against Dwight Howard in the conference finals.
Biggest Strength: Perimeter scoring
Gee, ya think? The lethal Wade-James combo on the wings hasn't been seen since the Lakers lined up Jerry West alongside Elgin Baylor in the 1960s. While it's likely that both players will see a downtick in their scoring numbers because they'll have to share the ball more, the decline needn't be huge -- none of the other Heat players have high usage rates so the three stars should be using most of the possessions.
What makes this partnership work, however, is that Wade and James are both unselfish players. James in particular would rather be the passer than the scorer, a role he couldn't fulfill on a Cleveland team that desperately needed him to score. Now he has the luxury of a Magic Johnson-esque role, where he can find shots for the other players and make more plays off the ball.
Additionally, Wade and James share an excellent comfort level, which they've demonstrated repeatedly in international competition and in All-Star Games for the Eastern Conference. That comfort level should help offset the one weakness of this partnership: Since neither is a good outside shooter, they'll have trouble spacing the floor for one another off the ball.
Of course, that weakness only matters if opponents can confine them to a half-court game. With their blazing speed in transition, the Heat's wings should prove a lethal combination on the break.
Biggest Weakness: Center
Miami's weakness in the middle is twofold. First, it's the Heat's worst position. Bosh could slide over from power forward, but he's undersized for the middle and took a beating in Toronto when asked to play there. The 6-8 Haslem competes but faces similar issues as a center.
Otherwise, the Heat have a series of replacement-level veterans, at least one of whom they're hoping has a surprise season left in him. The most likely candidate is Ilgauskas, who comes off a brutal 2009-10 but could benefit from a bevy of open jumpers with his new teammates. Howard started for the Trail Blazers for a chunk of last season but the raves about his play were more a case of exceeding extremely low expectations; he, too, is undersized for the middle at 6-9. Magloire, meanwhile, is slower than a dial-up connection and a borderline NBA player at this point.
That's one reason to worry about the center position. The other is because of the biggest threat in the East, Orlando. The Magic's Dwight Howard is a dominating physical presence, and teams that struggle to handle him -- see Ilgauskas' Cleveland squad in the 2009 conference finals -- are at Orlando's mercy. If the Heat make any major trades this season, I expect it to be for a defensive center to match up against Howard.
Outlook
Clearly, the Heat will be fantastic. However, I don't think proclamations that they can break the league's all-time regular-season win record are realistic. For starters, even the best teams require a confluence of positive events for that to happen: good health, surprise years from secondary players and good fortune in close games.
But a bigger reason to bet against the Heat earning 73 wins is that they don't need to. It's likely Miami will have clinched the league's top overall seed in the playoffs with several games remaining in the season. If so, there's little incentive for the likes of Wade and James to risk their playoff health just to pad the Heat's regular-season win total.
As a result, I don't see this team as a record-breaker, even though I do think they're capable if everything goes right and they're interested in doing it. But despite my cautionary notes up top, I do see the Heat as an overwhelming favorite to win the East and am picking them to win the championship.
As good as the Heat will be in the regular season, they can be even better in the playoffs when the three stars are capable of playing 40-45 minutes a night. While the size of their probable playoff foils, Orlando and the Lakers, can present some problems, no matchup is as daunting as the challenge of facing the Heat's James and Wade combo. If the Heat prevail, this could be the first championship of many. But let's see them earn one before we start sizing up their other fingers for rings.
Prediction: 66-16, 1st in Southeast Division, 1st in Eastern Conference
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba
....naja er hats verdient, einer meiner lieblingswriter und ich sage das nicht weil ich cavs fan bin hab auch schon ein buch von ihm gelesen das sehr gut war.
