"Does putting better players or offensive structure around prospects lead to development? Basically thinking of Houston and how Green and Alperen Sengun look so much better playing off of FVV and Brooks." --
Saurabh
Let's take a look at how much the Rockets' young starters have actually improved. Green, Sengun and
Jabari Smith Jr. are the three crown jewels of Houston's rebuild from the draft.
Using my SCHOENE projection system, I've compared how the trio has rated thus far this season against what we would expect based on the development of the most similar players at the same age.
Green's development is the ordinary progression typical for a young player. His efficiency has improved slightly with a lower usage rate, putting him right at the median among his comps.
On the other hand, Smith has taken a solid step forward, rating near the 75th percentile of his comparable players in terms of development. But, it's really Sengun who has transformed his effectiveness. Of the 39 players with a similarity score of 90 or better to Sengun at the same age, only one improved more the following season so far:
Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There's a couple of obvious ways where better surrounding talent has helped unlock Sengun's skills in particular. According to
Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, 71% of Sengun's potential assists have been converted this season, up from 58% last season. His potential assists are up on a per-minute basis, too, as Ime Udoka is using Sengun as an offensive hub. But those same passes went unrecorded in the box score last season when teammates missed the shots.
Additionally, the improved floor spacing around Sengun has made his post touches -- although less common with him playing in the high post -- more effective. Per Second Spectrum tracking, Sengun post-ups have yielded an incredible 1.6 points per play when he either shoots, is fouled, turns it over or passes to a teammate who shoots. Only the Boston Celtics'
Kristaps Porzingis post-ups have been more productive (1.7 points per play) among players who have at least 10 opportunities. Last season, Sengun post-ups produced 1.03 points per play.
Although Smith hasn't made the same kind of leap as Sengun, he's undoubtedly benefited as a play finisher from Houston's influx of talent. According to Second Spectrum, 62% of Smith's shot attempts have been assist opportunities this season, up from 58% as a rookie. Like most players, Smith is far more efficient when set up by a pass, helping him up his 2-point percentage from 49% to 59% and his 3-point accuracy from 31% to 36%.
The Rockets presumably hoped Green would be more effective with improved spacing translating to wider driving lanes. That hasn't really been the case. Green is
shooting just 35% on drives, down from 44% last season. Green has offset that by hitting 40% on 3s, so if his scoring in the paint comes around, it's possible he'll show more progress statistically.
If Houston continues to make a push for a postseason spot with the young starters playing key roles, I suspect other teams will take notice. Few will have enough cap space to make the aggressive moves the Rockets did, but so far they seem to be validating a philosophy many old-school GMs have long espoused: It's dangerous to let a team get too young and unskilled during a rebuild.