Cleveland didn't have to commit a whole lot financially to get this deal done since all the protagonists have ending contracts; the main carrot for Phoenix is that Pavlovic's deal is only partially guaranteed, and he'll be waived to pocket the savings. In fact, he could end up back in Cleveland. The Suns could benefit more financially if Ben Wallace takes a buyout and retires, a possibility he mentioned to our Chris Broussard after the Cavs were eliminated from the playoffs.
It still will cost them nearly $10 million this year after accounting for luxury tax payments, yet a further sign that the Cavs are willing to spend whatever it takes to keep LeBron James happy and get his signature on a new contract after the season.
But the Cavs were also prudent in acquiring a player with a large ending contract, because they're still in position to either a) be a major player in the 2010 free-agent market, with Toronto's Chris Bosh the most likely target, or b) use Shaq's contract in a trade-deadline deal to get a high-priced star if he doesn't work out.
The latter scenario is unlikely, however, because what Shaq contributes in the regular season is largely immaterial. The Cavs are likely to restrict his minutes and use him in tandem with 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, keeping both players fresh for the postseason. That may help Ilgauskas as much as Shaq -- he looked gassed in the Orlando series.
The question, then, is whether he can do enough against Howard to help the Cavs against their most likely conference finals opponent (with apologies to Boston fans). A couple of items are in Shaq's favor on that front. First, he's tended to play his best upon first arriving in a new city before slowly slacking off. Second, he seems newly motivated to get another ring now that nemesis Kobe Bryant won a ring without him.
But most of all, O'Neal is exactly the type of defender that can keep Howard from doing what he does best. His sheer size will prevent Howard from overpowering him and getting the deep post position he routinely claimed against Ilgauskas and Wallace in the playoffs, and he still moves well enough to keep up with Howard in transition. And if he can use his strength to draw some fouls on Howard at the other end, so much the better.
In six meetings against Howard over the past four years, O'Neal has done a solid job defensively. Howard only scored more than 17 points once, a 21-point effort against the Suns this year, and averaged only 16.7 points in the six games. Shaq has done a particularly good job limiting his shot opportunities, as Howard attempting just 8.5 field goals per game in the six contests.
Mind you, Shaq doesn't need to pitch a shutout. Cleveland just needs more resistance than it showed in the conference finals, when Howard tormented the Cavs for 25.8 points per game on 65 percent shooting to usher them out of the playoffs.
History has shown he can provide that, which is why this deal is a good one for Cleveland now -- and would have been an even better one four months ago.
Nonetheless, they're still in a far better position than the Suns are. And in contrast to Phoenix's proclamation 16 months ago that they were acquiring Shaq to win a title, the Cavs now seem to be in position to actually do so.