Young team, tons of hype, overachieved a little last year, failed to improve last summer, slipped defensively, too predictable offensively … had my Durant man-crush not blinded me, I may have seen this one coming. (Nope. Picked 'em to make the Finals.) In my defense, I thought James Harden was the No. 3 pick in the 2009 draft and might be better than an 11th man. When I wrote last spring about what life could have been like had Oklahoma City taken Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry (the one I wish it had taken), the catch was always "That's easy to say now with Curry and Evans playing well, but just wait until Harden gets going."
So … how long do we have to wait?
Every fantasy junkie knows that Year 2 is always the season when young guys take off. You buried your rookie jitters, figured out how to spend your paycheck, got used to the travel, made friends, found a place to live, survived the Rookie Wall, spent the summer working on your holes … and then BOOM! Year 2 happens and you hit your stride. If it doesn't happen? Major problem. Sure, you can have your occasional late bloomer (see: Billups, Chauncey), but anytime you're waiting for a high lottery pick to "get it" past Year 2, there's a good chance you'll be waiting forever. Top-six picks since 1997 who back up that statement: Antonio Daniels, Ron Mercer, Robert Traylor, Jon Bender, Stromile Swift, Marcus Fizer, Kwame Brown, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Darko Milicic, Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Ty Thomas and Yi Jianlian. If you want, we can throw Hasheem Thabeet in there right now. Up to you.
The concern with Harden? He might be another Marvin Williams: solid player, good character guy, a borderline starter … but ultimately pretty forgettable (other than his Kimbo Slice beard). How would you even describe him? Decent 3-point shooter. Decent athlete (not great). Streaky scorer. Doesn't fill the box score. Disappears for minutes at a time. I know he'll get better, but with how the Zombies were built, don't they need him to get significantly better? And soon?
That No. 3 pick is starting to feel more and more like a fork-in-the-road moment for the Zombies: like Atlanta passing on Chris Paul and Deron Williams, or Detroit ending up with Darko over Carmelo, or (going in the other direction) Orlando settling on Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor. The Thunder had one last chance to find a third blue-chipper before becoming a perennial playoff team. Did they fail? Is Harden just a poor fit? How much longer do they have to wait for him? Should they sell high right now and flip him to Philly with Mo Peterson's expiring contract for Andre Iguodala (once Iggy is healthy)?
Sam Presti's thinking seems to be "There's no rush, we have plenty of time." But Durant is a superstar right now. Westbrook is one of the league's best guards right now. How do we know those two realities will remain in place in five years? Look at how fast Tracy McGrady's career went south. Same for Vince Carter, Chris Webber, Yao Ming, Jermaine O'Neal, Grant Hill, Larry Johnson, Shawn Kemp, Penny Hardaway, Kevin Johnson … you just never know. If you have two of the league's best 15 players and one of them is an MVP favorite, then you're a title contender. Whether you want to admit it or not.