Ayton
The numbers make it look like he’s taken a step back this season. He’s gone from averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds last year to 14 points and 13 rebounds this year. But that’s not an accurate portrayal of what’s happening in Phoenix. His offensive role is simply reduced due to the presence of Paul and Booker in the backcourt (plus more shots for the aforementioned Bridges). Ayton gets four fewer shots per game because he’s not a necessary part of the Suns’ offense at this point.
However, from the early portion of his rookie season to where he is now, Ayton has taken an
enormous leap defensively. It’s at the point where he’s a legitimate above-average defender, and he (along with Paul and Bridges) are carrying the Suns to a top-10 defense. Within 6 feet of the rim, Ayton is allowing opponents to shoot just 50 percent. He defends fewer of those shots than the elite rim protectors in the NBA, but that’s only because he’s also pretty adept at going out and covering on the perimeter. Overall, Ayton contests more shots throughout the course of a game than all but four other players in the league, and he’s an effective deterrent on those shots. I would say Paul and Bridges drive the defensive play more than Ayton, but for a 22-year-old center to be part of a top-10 defense is an enormous feather in Ayton’s cap and continues along the trajectory he’s been on defensively.
So why does he not move further up this list? While I don’t think it’s necessarily a “bad” thing that Ayton doesn’t score a lot, his overall lack of aggressiveness is noticeable not only to the general public but also to his teammates. Guys such as Paul and Booker have been outspoken this season that they’re harder on Ayton than anyone else on the team because they
know he can bring more offense than he does. All too often, Ayton is too comfortable sliding into the background noise of possessions. He doesn’t take advantage of real mismatches when they present themselves by burying smaller guys on the block. There are like five guys in the NBA who have the physical gifts he does in terms of strength and explosiveness, and he’s still averaging under three free throws per game because he refuses to impose his will on the proceedings.
He also doesn’t always roll hard enough to the rim and doesn’t always finish with the kind of authority you’d like to see from someone who is 7-foot tall, with a 7-5 wingspan and very real explosiveness vertically. If Ayton isn’t going to be the kind of post threat he has the potential to be, he could easily score four more points per game than he does currently just by rolling harder to the rim and presenting as a true lob threat. It’s insane that Ayton, playing with Chris Freaking Paul feeding him the ball, surrounded by shooters such as Booker, Bridges and Cam Johnson, only scores on about one possession per game out of ball screens. This also generally has adverse effects on the offense, because there’s less pressure on taggers to collapse onto him as a roller in order to try to slow him down. Rolling harder and without hesitancy wouldn’t just create easier shots for him, but it would create easier shots for his teammates. This possession just kind of shows everything that’s frustrating all at once with Ayton.
This possession actually had three opportunities for Ayton to roll hard to the rim. On the first one, he popped out to the perimeter, a reasonable choice, but he’s a non-shooter so he doesn’t get much respect. He dribbles into a handoff with Paul and stops midway through a half-hearted roll to go up to re-screen. On the third screen (which is what you see above), he finally rolls, but he hesitates before doing so and doesn’t really push all the way to the rim in a forceful manner. The Suns get a good shot because Paul hits a good cross-corner pass, but the lack of hard roll allows Pritchard to X-out into the corner reasonably, then Walker to at least close out quickly enough on the top of the key to deny the 3 (even if it ended up being a fly-by, the 3-point denial into a 2-point shot is a crucial part of NBA defense now). Still, Ayton is so big and strong that he can wrestle for position against Daniel Theis with ease to get the offensive rebound. But instead of going up with power, he tries a half-hearted lay-in. Those need to be dunks, and because it wasn’t, he missed, and the possession ends without a bucket.
I don’t think Ayton has the upside of some shot-creating center like Joel Embiid or Jokic because he doesn’t have the handle to create shots. But he could get 20 points per night just rolling hard, occasionally popping out to the midrange and taking advantage of mismatches in the post even in the modern, perimeter-based NBA. And if he’s a 20-point-per-game center who also continues on his trajectory defensively, that’s a clear All-Star-caliber player. But Ayton has to show he wants it first. Play angrier, Deandre!